Skinner and Fantasy Football

Fantasy football is nowhere near the random discipline that many of us believe. Instead, it is clear that fantasy football is a massive behaviorism experiment based on operative conditioning. We draft players who either reward us or punish us over the course of the season. Those rewards and punishments have a direct impact on who we select in the future. The inescapable reality is that the basis of every fantasy draft lies in the teachings of one B.F. Skinner. In the mid-20th Century, Skinner advanced the science of psychology with his studies entitled radical behaviorism. According to Skinner, behavior can be reduced to a function of our environment and the reinforcement of consequences. Stated simply, a behavior is strengthened through positive reinforcement and weakened by punishment. The consequences for fantasy football are profound.

If you doubt this premise, speak with anyone in your league who drafted Matt Forte in 2009. Their hatred for Forte likely burns white hot. We all have our Fortes. We all have that player we hate unconditionally. And notably, you will never draft that player again. This behavior is a perfect example of operant conditioning. Player X punished you for an entire year for your selection. That punishment diminishes the chances that you will draft them again – or in operant conditioning terms – repeat that behavior.

Interestingly, that experience may have been so deleterious that you may rationalize the passing over of entire categories of players. Say you got burned by Terrell Owens last year. You may now declare that you will not draft prima donna receivers, or Buffalo receivers, or insane narcissists. For example, this very site has a rant regarding an aversion to Big Ten running backs. Of course Eddie George, Larry Johnson, and Marion Barber all came from the Big Ten. Mr. Slein even states that none of the fantasy studs from the last 20 years did not come from the Big Ten – brushing aside Larry Johnson’s accomplishment in 2005 and 2006.

This error in logic is not the fault of Mr. Slein. According to Skinner, it is simply a function of Mr. Slein’s environment and consequences. It is likely that Mr. Slein was burned badly by a Big Ten back and, more likely, lived in the Midwest where his environment would contribute to his aversion. Due to this combination, he is less likely, therefore, to ever draft another Big Ten back. Through operant conditioning, he is conditioned to avoid Big Ten backs.

Skinner’s theories seem to break down when examining one of the most fascinating behaviors in fantasy football – chasing the rookie running backs year after year. Every league has this owner. They are the gamblers. They have been burned and they have been handsomely rewarded. What would Skinner say about this phenomenon? Naturally he would point out that fantasy football is inherently inconsistent with its reinforcement. This is especially true at the rookie running back position. Curtis Martin, Fred Taylor, Marshall Faulk, and Clinton Portis all had huge rookie campaigns. Curtis Enis, Blair Thomas, Ki-Jana Carter, and Lawrence Phillips were all disasters. How can Skinner make sense of all this?

Ah, but operant conditioning is dynamic. Importantly, two variables in operant conditioning are contingency and the size of the reward. Contingency means that the consequence is not reliable or consistent. The less consistent a consequence, the less effective is the effect on the behavior. Clearly, rookies provide an extremely inconsistent reward or punishment. Hence, our gamblers who love rookies will have a hard time ever learning their lessons. Second, size means that the larger the reward, the greater the likelihood that behavior will be affected. Rookies are perhaps the biggest unknown in any draft. Whereas most players have a clearly discernable ceiling, rookies have tremendous upside. Like a lottery, rookies are simply too enticing to pay attention to the inconsistent nature of their rewards.

The lesson here is obvious. In the next weeks before your fantasy draft, you must read Verbal Behavior by Skinner, Walden Two by Skinner, and the recent Beyond the Box: B.F. Skinner’s Technology of Behavior from Laboratory to Life, 1950s-1970s by Alexandra Rutherford. Happy reading.