Stay Away from Big Ten Running Backs

Disclaimer: This article was written and edited prior the recent ’10 expansion of the Big-10.

Many years ago I formed a fantasy football hypothesis that Big Ten running backs make terrible fantasy backs. I have stuck by this theory through my career as a fantasy owner, and for the most part it has paid off.

I’ve managed to steer clear of some big time busts, and use my draft picks for better long term investments.

Now of course this doesn’t come without exceptions. Marion Barber has been a fairly solid back most of his career. Fellow University of Minnesota alter mata Michael Bennett even had a few decent years — that is when he wasn’t nursing was of his several torn hamstrings. A lot of Big Ten backs have been excellent NFL players (see: Mike Alstott), however there is a big difference between being a good NFL back and

a good fantasy back.

A Lack of Studs

When you think of the top tier fantasy backs in the last two decades, none of these guys came from the Big Ten:

  • Chris Johnson
  • Adrian Peterson
  • LaDainian Tomlinson
  • Shaun Alexander
  • Curtis Martin
  • Jamal Lewis
  • Ricky Williams
  • Priest Holmes
  • Edgerrin James
  • Marshall Faulk
  • Terrell Davis
  • Barry Sanders
  • Emmitt Smith
  • Curtis Martin

I could go on and on. And it’s not until you get to a much lower tier of players that Big Ten backs start showing up.The biggest counter argument to this would be Larry Johnson. However, I disqualify him because Penn State didn’t join Big 10 competition until 1992  (only 3 years prior to LJs entry to the NFL). And if that claim isn’t enough, let’s just call it a wash with two words — Curtis Enis (Blair Thomas also works…or Ki-Jana Carter for that matter).

Big Ten Busts

Maybe it has something to do with lack of quality play in the Big Ten? Or maybe that the style of play in the division doesn’t prepare backs for the NFL. Or maybe it IS just a coincidence.

It’s hard to overlook that the amount of busts, disappointents, and just underwhelming mediocrity, far exceeds the quality coming in. Below is a list of the embarrassing 1st & 2nd round busts over the last two decades:

  • Laurence Maroney (2006)
  • Chris Perry (2004)
  • Ladell Betts (2002)
  • T.J. Duckett (2002)
  • Michael Bennett (2001)
  • Anthony Thomas (2001)
  • Ron Dayne (2000)
  • Joe Montgomery (1999)
  • Robert Holcombe (1998)
  • Tim Biakabutuka (1996)
  • Terrell Fletcher (1995)
  • Tyrone Wheatley (1995)
  • Vaughn Dunbar (1992)
  • Jarrod Bunch (1991)
  • Anthony Thompson (1990)
  • Nick Bell (1991)
  • Leroy Hoard (1990)
  • Darrell Thompson (1990)

Conclusion: Buyer Beware

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying there isn’t any value in these backs. A lot of them have a solid year here and there. There just lacks a long term consistancy, with many of them being one year wonders, or having a career plagued by injury. More importantly, there has been a void of any Fantasy Football Hall of Famers (not associated with the NFL Hall of Fame). We all know it takes having a Chris Johnson, AP, or LT to win Fantasy Super Bowls, and/or to build a dynasty team. So take this as a warning the next time a Big Ten back has entered a draft. Or even when thinking about making that big trade for Beanie Wells next season. You’ve been warned.

Below is a compiled list of every Big Ten back drafted in the last 20 years.

So read on, laugh, cry, vomit, and bring a sense of hesitation to your next fantasy football draft.

llinois
Year Rd Sel # Player Position Team
2008 1 23 Rashard Mendenhall RB Pittsburgh Steelers
2007 - - Pierre Thomas RB -
2001 6 174 Jameel Cook RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1998 2 37 Robert Holcombe RB St. Louis Rams
1991 9 236 Howard Griffith RB Indianapolis Colts
Indiana
Year Rd Sel # Player Position Team
1992 1 21 Vaughn Dunbar RB New Orleans Saints
1991 12 312 Ernie Thompson RB Los Angeles Rams
1990 2 31 Anthony Thompson RB Phoenix Cardinals
Iowa
Year Rd Sel # Player Position Team
2009 3 65 Shonn Greene RB New York Jets
2005 6 196 Tony Jackson RB Seattle Seahawks
2002 2 56 Ladell Betts RB Washington Redskins
1998 4 101 Tavian Banks RB Jacksonville Jaguars
1997 3 61 Sedrick Shaw RB New England Patriots
1991 2 43 Nick Bell RB Los Angeles Raiders
1991 11 297 Tony Stewart RB Seattle Seahawks
Michigan
Year Rd Sel # Player Position Team
2008 6 202 Mike Hart RB Indianapolis Colts
2004 1 26 Chris Perry RB Cincinnati Bengals
2003 3 85 B.J. Askew FB New York Jets
2001 2 38 Anthony Thomas RB Chicago Bears
1998 3 81 Chris Floyd RB New England Patriots
1998 5 153 Chris Howard RB Denver Broncos
1996 1 8 Tim Biakabutuka RB Carolina Panthers
1995 1 17 Tyrone Wheatley RB New York Giants
1991 1 27 Jarrod Bunch FB New York Giants
1991 5 112 Jon Vaughn RB New England Patriots
1991 11 291 Tony Boles RB Dallas Cowboys
1990 2 45 Leroy Hoard RB Cleveland Browns
Michigan State
Year Rd Sel # Player Position Team
2009 5 173 Javon Ringer RB Tennessee Titans
2005 6 201 DeAndra Cobb RB Atlanta Falcons
2002 1 18 T.J. Duckett RB Atlanta Falcons
1999 4 103 Sedrick Irvin RB Detroit Lions
1996 6 193 Scott Greene RB Carolina Panthers
Minnesota
Year Rd Sel # Player Position Team
2006 1 21 Laurence Maroney RB New England Patriots
2005 4 109 Marion Barber RB Dallas Cowboys
2004 5 162 Thomas Tapeh RB Philadelphia Eagles
2000 6 171 Thomas Hamner RB Philadelphia Eagles
1996 4 123 Chris Darkins RB Green Bay Packers
1990 1 19 Darrell Thompson RB Green Bay Packers
Northwestern
Year Rd Sel # Player Position Team
2005 7 244 Noah Herron RB Pittsburgh Steelers
1999 4 112 Sean Bennett RB New York Giants
1997 4 105 Darnell Autry RB Chicago Bears
1991 12 310 Bob Christian RB Atlanta Falcons
Ohio State
Year Rd Sel # Player Position Team
2009 1 31 Beanie Wells RB Arizona Cardinals
2007 4 107 Antonio Pittman RB New Orleans Saints
2002 4 99 Jonathan Wells RB Houston Texans
2002 4 129 Jamar Martin FB Dallas Cowboys
2000 5 144 Michael Wiley RB Dallas Cowboys
2000 7 228 Kevin Houser FB New Orleans Saints
1999 2 49 Joe Montgomery RB New York Giants
1997 4 129 Nicky Sualua RB Dallas Cowboys
1996 1 14 Eddie George RB Houston Oilers
1994 3 66 Jeff Cothran RB Cincinnati Bengals
1994 4 114 Raymont Harris FB Chicago Bears
1993 1 21 Robert Smith RB Minnesota Vikings
1992 7 188 Scottie Graham FB Pittsburgh Steelers
Penn State
Year Rd Sel # Player Position Team
2007 3 90 Tony Hunt RB Philadelphia Eagles
2006 4 100 Michael Robinson RB San Francisco 49ers
2003 1 27 Larry Johnson RB Kansas City Chiefs
2002 4 107 Omar Easy RB Kansas City Chiefs
1998 1 5 Curtis Enis RB Chicago Bears
1996 3 92 Jon Witman FB Pittsburgh Steelers
1996 4 115 Brian Milne FB Indianapolis Colts
1996 7 218 Mike Archie RB Houston Oilers
1995 1 1 Ki-Jana Carter RB Cincinnati Bengals
1993 6 144 Richie Anderson RB New York Jets
1992 8 205 Sam Gash RB New England Patriots
1991 6 158 Leroy Thompson RB Pittsburgh Steelers
1991 8 214 Gary Brown RB Houston Oilers
1990 1 2 Blair Thomas RB New York Jets
Purdue
Year Rd Sel # Player Position Team
1998 7 218 Edwin Watson RB Green Bay Packers
1996 2 35 Mike Alstott FB Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Wisconsin
Year Rd Sel # Player Position Team
2006 3 74 Brian Calhoun RB Detroit Lions
2001 1 27 Michael Bennett RB Minnesota Vikings
2000 1 11 Ron Dayne RB New York Giants
1999 6 172 Cecil Martin FB Philadelphia Eagles
1995 2 51 Terrell Fletcher RB San Diego Chargers


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Comments


  1. Greg Shoemaker

    You’re an idiot. Penn State started Big 10 competition in 1992, and Larry Johnson didn’t graduate and get drafted until 2002…. where did you get your information from?

    And it’s not that I totally disagree with you, but you haven’t even mentioned the bright spots and two biggest upside running back for this year: Beanie Wells and Shonn Greene. Both Big 10 alums might I remind you…. Can I please play in your fantasy leagues for money so that I can draft Wells and Green later while you bypass on them completely based on what college conference they played for?


  2. Greg Shoemaker

    P.S. Rashard Mendenhall went to Illinois… so did Pierre Thomas. Ryan Grant (ND), LeSean McCoy (Pitt)….

    Let me guess, you grew up in the south (either Texas or Georgia) and believe that only good football players come from the south too, right? Tom Brady (michigan), Tony Romo (e. ill.), Ray Rice (rutgers), Joe Flacco (delaware), Matt Ryan (bc), Donovan McNabb (syr), Larry Fitzgerald (pitt), …. the list goes on.

    Even Curtis Martin (who’s on your list TWICE, why?) when to Pitt. Last I checked that’s in Big Ten country, who gives a crap if it wasn’t the Big Ten? What college you went to, let alone what conference you were in, make NO DIFFERENCE to what kind of NFL player you’re going to be.

  3. Mr Shoemaker:

    Thank you for bringing to our attention the Big-10 error. Actually the data originally written was correct (Johnson entering in 2002 and Penn St beginning in 1992), however, I provided some idiot math in the parentheses. This has since been updated in the article.

    We also added Pierre Thomas to the Illinois list. That was an oversight made as a result of using data that provided a draft list of Big 10 running backs. Since Thomas went undrafted, he accidentally didn’t make the list. Also now updated in the article.

    One last note…This article was edited and written prior to any of the expansion (and/or talks of expansion), and thus only includes the Big-10/11 teams. This is why Grant and McCoy are not discussed.

    Other comments…
    It should be noted that this author (me) was born in Iowa, graduated from the University of Iowa, and has been living in Wisconsin for the last 10 years.
    So maybe this attributes to some of the biases. After seeing so many RB busts come from these schools (and having drafted a few onto my fantasy team), I have since grown a tainted view of them.

    You are right that a lot of quality players come from the Big-10, but this article was talking about the disappointments from the RB position (in terms of fantasy production). The reason the McCoy, Mendenhall, Wells, and Greene were left out of discussion was precisely the point for writing the article. It is that these new comers / slightly-unproven players may just deserve a little reconsideration when going into your 2010 fantasy draft.

    In conclusion…In 5 years when Mendenhall has wracked up 75 touchdowns, and there are 15 teams in the Big-10, I’ll be sure to write an new article called “Why the Big 15 produces such Awesome Backs / Why Booee R. Slein was so Wrong”. Or maybe McCoy, Wells, and Greene will play out to be the next Nick Bell / Ron Daynes of the league, and the article will be called “See I told you I was Right / Why Booee R. Slein is so Awesome”.


  4. Greg Shoemaker

    well done booee, thanks for the update. i think you have a point that there are alot of backs from the big ten that have busted. no doubt. but if you do back ground on the sec, big 12, etc. you might find similar results. maybe not? i’d be interested to see a brief 100 word update if similar busts occurred out of those other conference. may the article should’ve been called “why successful college running backs don’t always make fantasy superstars.” then the big ten is not called out for something that happens at every level–most likely because of differing level of competition, offensive line dominance at the college level, general gaps in talent betwee college teams, etc. it might be that you find a bigger trend–fantasy stars have little to do with college pedigree, and more to do with 1) opportunity to be successful (see ray rice, chris johnson, shonn greene), and 2) overall athletic ability (see peterson, gore, steven jackson, etc.)

  5. So glad you brought up the idea of extending the article/research to other conferences. As I mentioned in the beginning of the article, I first created this little hypothesis many years ago. It was a period when Florida (SEC) alone produced Emmitt Smith, Fred Taylor, John L Williams, and Neal Anderson within a fairly short period of time. Meanwhile the Big 10′s Michigan produced 3 1st round picks — all of whom were busts. However, times are a changin’ now, and those RB producing machines (i.e. Florida and Nebraska) just don’t exist any more. Even more so, the attributes that once defined the Big 10 are slowly transforming.

    I love your idea, and will see that this is next in queue for articles/research-reports coming from myself. Thanks a bunch!

    On a side note…
    You and many of our readers may really enjoy this resource provided by NFL.com:
    http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=school


  6. Bryan Letner

    I think Ohio State had a few good running backs over the last few years. Their later round draft picks haven’t done much but their top picks over the last 20 years haven’t been too bad. I.E. Eddie George, Robert Smith, Raymont Harris….I mean Eddie George wasn’t even mentioned in this article…You sure make known all the so called “busts” in the Big 10 but left out some pretty good players too! ….As far as I know other conferences recruit these same players also. I guess if they would play in the SEC or Big 12 it would be totally different. The Big 10 ruins them. It all comes back to the conference they play in. What a bunch of hogwash!! Thank you though for your vast knowledge on the Big 10. All that wonderful research you have done in your mothers basement….I will definately move Beanie Wells down on board now. If he plays anything like Eddie George it would just be a total wasted pick. So thank you Mr. Slein I will definately stay away!!

 

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