Switch-o-Change-o: Fantasy Running Backs Moving Teams

There are a good amount of fantasy running backs this season who have a change of scenery. A lot of these guys were once high profile fantasy backs, and now they are being taken late in many ’10 drafts because of their age and uncertainty.

These names just don’t have the sex appeal that the younger players of the league have. They’ve lost a step or two, it’s uncertain what role they will play with their new team, and they lack the upside potential that some speedy unknown rookie may possess. However, every season a couple of old workhorse running backs surprise everyone with their fantasy output. Most importantly, these backs slide to the later rounds of a draft, making them fantastic value picks.

This report will examine the history of running backs that change NFL teams, and how their production changes as a result. The players were selectively chosen to avoid injury situations, meaning that nearly all of theses player participated in the majority of the regular season without missing games.

The “Team Change” Trendline

The graph above is quite large and detailed, but you can click on it to see a full view. To lay out the basics for your though, the blue line is the rising age of players and the faint yellow line trending downward is the player’s fantasy production. The player names listed on the bottom show three lines: The previous team (green), the new team (yellow), and the 2nd year with the new team (red).

The surface analysis points to a fairly obvious conclusion that the older the player is when he changes teams, the greater the likelihood of fantasy failure. And then “age cut-off” point appears to be 30 years old.

Mileage and Traction

If there is one oddity, it is that for the players over the age of 29, there appears to be a ramp up in production by year two. Marcus Allen (not shown in graph) and Emmitt Smith showed some solid numbers late in their career, especially when they were two years in with their new team. However, before you go running off to make a long term investment in LT this year, you need to consider “mileage”. In three of his last four years with the Raiders, Allen didn’t he didn’t even get 70 carries. He was a freakish anomaly who played till the age of 37, mainly scavenging a bunch goal line TDs at the end of his career. LT has been used and abused his whole life, and he’s the type of back whose production has come from his ability to grind out extra yardage. Essentially, he’s not the type of back that Allen was — so don’t expect him to be used the same way.

Youth Revolt

Examining RBs(above) between the ages of 26-28, the trend shows a dramatic increase in production when the players go to a new team. While the growth doesn’t sustain, and in fact drops off a lot of times in the following year, it points to the fact that these are the types of running backs that you want to target.

There are a lot of outside variables to consider, and I’ll leave that research up to you. But the main question to consider is this:

• Was there an increase in rushing production at the new team after the new running back arrived?

This question is getting at whether the RB simply went to better running team. If the player joined the team and they improved that team’s rushing ability, that is saying a lot.

“Double Rainbow! What does it MEAN?”

On the average, players over the age of 30 and switching teams are seeing somewhere between a 50-60% decline in production. On a more positive note, players between 26-29 are gaining around a 20-25% increase in production.

So let’s take a look at what we have age wise. We should note that we marked Thomas Jones and Chester Taylor a year older than they are as of writing this, because their birthdays take place at before or at beginning of the regular season.

• LaDainian Tomlinson: 31
• Thomas Jones: 32
• Chester Taylor: 31
• Larry Johnson: 30
• Willie Parker: 29
• Marshawn Lynch: 24

Lynch is the most stacked up to improve age wise, but the problem is no word has come out whether he’s certain to be traded or not. We expect a sharp decline from LT, Thomas Jones, and LJ, just based on age.

This leaves two players in the discussion mix: Chester Taylor and Willie Parker. The reason we aren’t writing off Chester Taylor because of age is based on our “mileage” exception. He has had so many fewer carries than most running backs at his age, that he could almost be considered 29 in NFL years.

Above is a graph of the back in the ”29 year old” category. If we were do to a comparison, we’d match Chester Taylor’s situation(not talent) up to the likes of Cedric Benson or Michael Turner. Much like those two, he has been an under-used running back prior to the team change, and will likely see a similar “change of scenery” benefit that Benson and Turner did. As you see above, both turn and Benson saw a nice increase, which bodes well for a positive Chester Taylor prediction. Willie Parker is more of the likes of Ricky Watters and Curtis Martin, in that he has some significant mileage on him. This is not what one would refer to as “good”, because you can see how poorly a team change resulted for those Watters and Martin.

In Conclusion:

I’ll be the first to admit, this is a very surface analysis. One should really add data for the “team rushing” comparison (rushing yards of a team before/after the back arrived), but that would take all the fun out of it for you. If you have some of your own analysis, feel free to drop some comments.

With that said, by process of deduction — Chester Taylor is probably the best fit for a comeback season. Reaching for one of the elder backs is really going against the odds. Larry Johnson is on the cusp, but based on comparative analysis he appears doomed to flop. So if you are in the mid-rounds of your draft, and it’s time to take one of those veteran backs to pad your bench, our suggestion is Chester Taylor (CHI).